After-repair value, or ARV, is the estimated market value of a property after planned renovations are complete. This comparable-sales worksheet shows how to calculate ARV for a house flip using recent sold properties, consistent selection criteria, adjustment notes, and a conservative review process—so your resale assumption does not depend on the most optimistic listing in the neighborhood.
Overview
ARV is one of the most important inputs in a fix-and-flip deal analysis. It helps you test whether the purchase price, renovation scope, financing, selling expenses, and holding costs leave enough room for risk. It is not a guaranteed sale price, an appraisal, or a substitute for local market expertise. It is a reasoned estimate based on evidence available at the time.
A simple after-repair value formula is:
Estimated ARV = Indicated value from comparable sales ± supported adjustments
Many investors also use ARV in a maximum-offer calculation. One commonly discussed approach is the 70 percent rule, but it is only a screening guideline and should not replace a complete budget. A practical analysis should account for the actual renovation plan, financing terms, transaction costs, contingency, and the time required to sell.
Use this worksheet at three points: during initial property screening, after the renovation scope is confirmed, and immediately before setting the resale price. For a related calculation, compare this worksheet with the ARV calculator for house flipping and maximum offer.
How to estimate after-repair value
1. Define the finished property
Before searching for comparable sales, write down what the property will be when complete. Record the expected living area, bedroom and bathroom count, parking, lot characteristics, major systems, finish level, and any unusual features. Be specific about whether the renovation includes a new kitchen, updated bathrooms, finished basement, added bedroom, improved exterior, or only cosmetic work.
Your ARV should describe the finished home that the budget can realistically deliver. If the analysis assumes a high-end kitchen but the flip house budget supports only basic materials, the comparable selection will be misleading.
2. Build a comparable-sales set
Start with sold properties rather than active listings. Asking prices show what sellers hope to receive; closed sales provide stronger evidence of what buyers paid. Search as close to the subject property as practical, then expand the radius only when the immediate area does not provide enough relevant sales.
For each candidate, record:
- Property address or identifying label
- Sale date and sale price
- Living area and price per square foot
- Bedroom and bathroom count
- Lot, parking, basement, and other material features
- Renovation quality and apparent condition at sale
- Location factors such as traffic, school boundaries, views, or proximity to amenities
- Any reason the sale may not represent typical market behavior
Give preference to sales that resemble the finished property in size, layout, condition, and location. A nearby but substantially inferior or superior property may be less useful than a slightly farther sale with a similar buyer profile.
3. Compare the most relevant sales
Choose a small group of the strongest comparables rather than averaging every sale you can find. Examine the range of prices and ask why the differences exist. If the subject sits between two credible sales in condition and features, the indicated ARV may also fall between them. If the subject is clearly superior or inferior, document why.
Price per square foot can be a helpful comparison tool, but it should not be used mechanically. It may obscure differences in layout, lot size, renovation quality, or the value of smaller rooms. Use it as a reasonableness check alongside total sale price and feature comparisons.
4. Make adjustment notes
Do not make unsupported dollar adjustments simply to force a desired result. Instead, identify the difference and explain its likely direction. For example: “Comparable has one fewer bathroom; subject is expected to be superior,” or “Comparable has a renovated basement; subject does not include this feature in scope.” If you have reliable local evidence for a numerical adjustment, record the basis. Otherwise, use a range and keep the conclusion conservative.
5. Choose a defensible ARV range
Prepare a low, central, and high case. The central case should reflect the most supportable outcome, not the best possible one. Use the low case when evaluating whether the deal survives a weaker resale result. If the project works only at the high end of the range, treat that as a risk rather than as the expected outcome.
Inputs and assumptions for the worksheet
Copy the following fields into a spreadsheet or deal-analysis tool:
| Input | What to record |
|---|---|
| Subject property | Location, current condition, size, beds, baths, parking, lot, and notable features |
| Planned finish | Rooms and systems to be renovated, finish level, and features added or removed |
| Search radius | Starting radius and the reason for expanding it, if necessary |
| Sold-date range | Date window used and why older sales remain relevant, if included |
| Comparable 1–5 | Sale price, date, size, features, condition, location, and adjustment notes |
| Indicated value | Low, central, and high conclusions supported by the selected sales |
| Marketability | Expected buyer pool, competing listings, and likely pricing challenges |
| Confidence level | High, moderate, or low, with a written explanation |
Keep the ARV assumptions aligned with the repair scope. A detailed contractor scope of work template can help connect the proposed finish level to the value estimate. Also review property condition risks with a house flipping inspection checklist. Structural, moisture, electrical, plumbing, roof, or HVAC issues can change both the renovation plan and the marketability of the finished home.
ARV is only one part of the deal. Subtract acquisition costs, renovation costs, contingency, loan expenses, utilities, insurance, taxes, commissions, closing costs, and other holding costs before judging potential profit. Track renovation assumptions with a room-by-room rehab budget template, and keep sale-related records organized with the house flipping tax checklist.
Worked example: a conservative ARV review
Assume a two-story property is expected to finish with three bedrooms, two bathrooms, updated kitchens and baths, refreshed flooring and paint, and no major addition. These are hypothetical assumptions for demonstrating the method, not a market valuation.
Three selected sold comparables show the following results:
- Comparable A: Similar size and location, renovated condition, sold for $315,000. It has a slightly better parking arrangement than the subject.
- Comparable B: Slightly smaller, similar renovation quality, sold for $300,000. It has one fewer bathroom.
- Comparable C: Similar bedroom count but a larger lot and higher finish level, sold for $330,000.
Rather than simply averaging the three prices, document the differences. Comparable A may indicate that the subject belongs near the low-to-middle portion of the observed range because of the parking difference. Comparable B may support a higher value for the subject because the subject has an additional bathroom, but the difference should not be assigned a precise amount without reliable local evidence. Comparable C establishes an upper reference point, but its larger lot and superior finish make it a weak basis for the central case.
A reasonable worksheet conclusion might identify a conservative case near the lower end of the range, a central case supported by the two most similar sales, and a high case only if the renovation is completed to the quality assumed. The next step is to run the complete deal analysis against all three cases. If the project produces an acceptable result only at the high case, reconsider the offer, scope, financing, or resale strategy.
When to recalculate ARV
Revisit the estimate whenever one of its inputs changes. Recalculate after new comparable sales close, the renovation scope changes, an inspection reveals a major issue, the project is delayed, or competing properties enter the market. A change from a cosmetic renovation to a systems-heavy renovation may affect the budget more than the ARV; both sides of the equation must be updated together.
Before listing, review the most recent sold and active competition, confirm that the finished property matches the assumed condition, and ask whether the selected price is supported by more than one comparable. Then prepare the home for its intended buyer with a measured plan for repairs, cleaning, and presentation. The staging a house to sell checklist can help organize that final review.
Finally, save the worksheet with its date, source notes, assumptions, and confidence level. Repeatable documentation makes it easier to compare deals, explain changes to partners or lenders, and avoid quietly increasing ARV to justify a purchase. For broader renovation decisions, review the best renovations for resale guide and compare a flip with a hold using the flip-or-rent decision framework.
